Entrepreneurs do not feel that the time is right to invest in Mexico, so the new government must propose productive solutions that generate certainty to boost economic growth, the private sector said.
The Center for Economic Studies of the Private Sector (CEESP) pointed out that it is difficult to think that the weakening of business confidence due to the cancellation of the New Airport (NAIM) and later due to concerns about a possible change of direction in energy policies and education has disappeared altogether.
It is likely that the anticipation of a decline in GDP growth, together with the environment of a weak rule of law, negatively affect the evolution of private investment despite the positive data for January. The business confidence indicator shows that business managers do not consider it a good time to invest.
CEESP specified that in the construction and commerce sectors, the indicator that reflects this perception has remained 94 consecutive months below the threshold of 50 points, while in the manufacturing sector accumulates 136 months.
In the Survey on the Expectations of Specialists in Private Sector Economics conducted by the Bank of Mexico in March, almost two thirds of the participating specialists considered it a bad time to invest.
International organizations have also indicated that the uncertainty about the policies implemented by the new government can be a negative factor in the behavior of private investment and growth.
Based on this perception, the World Bank recently downgraded its growth forecast for Mexico from 2.0 percent to 1.7 percent by 2019 and from 2.4 percent to 2.0 percent by 2020.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) continued with the reduction of its growth estimate for 2019 from 2.1 percent to 1.6 percent. By 2020 he corrected his expectation of a 2.2 percent advance to 1.9 percent.
Despite the better performance of productive activity during the first month of the year, it is to be expected that the downward trend will continue, which strengthens the possibility that there will continue to be downward corrections in growth forecasts, which is a negative factor for the investment.
It is essential to strengthen an environment that stimulates its permanent progress, in order to achieve higher growth rates, as is the objective of the administration. .
The most recent result of the behavior of industrial production indicated that during February it grew 0.2 percent. However, compared to the same month last year it registered a decrease of 0.9 percent, which, although it was its fourth consecutive month with negative figures, the rate of decline has moderated.
There is no doubt that, given the mixed signs that show the conjunctural figures, to propose proactive solutions that contribute to the new government achieving its goals of growth and well-being is the propitious for the productive sectors to benefit from a business environment friendly to the public. productive investment.