How many cold fronts will there be in 2022-2023?

The 2022-2023 Cold Front Season has officially begun, and the first front may interact with a tropical storm, which may have an impact on the Southeast.

How many cold fronts will there be in 2022-2023?
The rainy season is about to end and the first cold front arrives. September. Credit: SMN

The 2022-2023 cold front season, which runs from September to May, has begun, and there is already an alert for the southeastern states of the country. The first cold front will descend over northern states starting on September 25 and will possibly interact with a tropical storm in Quintana Roo. Some of the states that could be affected by this are Veracruz, Tabasco, Chiapas, and the Yucatan Peninsula.

At this time of the year, the population should be even more cautious since cold air masses can interact with tropical cyclones, modifying their trajectories and sometimes forcing them to become stationary, warned Alejandra Margarita Méndez Girón, Coordinator of the National Meteorological Service (SMN, for its initials in Spanish). She explained that if a tropical cyclone becomes stationary near populated areas, a large amount of rain it discharges can generate damage, floods, and landslides.

What is a cold front and how many are expected this season?

A cold front is the front part of a cold air mass coming from Canada and the United States and moving in a southerly direction.

According to Conagua, cold air masses move towards our territory during this season, causing significant temperature drops, fog, and frost in the north and center of the country; while on the Gulf of Mexico coast, they cause intense north winds and high waves, which is known as "northerly."

In addition, when a cold front combines with humidity, it generates snowfall in high areas in the north and center of the country. The National Water Commission (Conagua) thinks that this season, 51 frontal systems will come into Mexico.

In a remote conference to announce the beginning of the season of cold fronts and winter systems, the Conagua announced that two cold fronts are forecast for September; five for October, six for November 6, and eight for December.

January 2023 will be the month with the coldest fronts of the season, with nine; for February and March, seven are forecast; six in April and one in May. These 51 forecasted systems would surpass those of the 2021–2022 season, which had 48.

Climatologically, the states with the greatest temperature drops are Chihuahua, Mexico City, Durango, State of Mexico, Puebla, Tlaxcala, and Zacatecas, said Méndez Girón, who added that for the center of the country, minimum temperatures of between two and eight degrees are expected.