Pemex is the biggest weakness factor in the Mexican economy and despite the refinancing of its debt, announced by the federal government, the question remains whether it can sustain itself and fulfill its long-term commitments because it is the most indebted oil company in the world, said Fernando López Macari, president of the Mexican Institute of Finance Executives (IMEF).
The government is under considerable pressure to support Pemex's finances with public sector income, through a more benevolent fiscal regime and the use of the stabilization fund for oil revenues. The concern of rating agencies and markets is that the commitment of the federal government could jeopardize compliance with the primary surplus.
If oil revenues are reduced, an adjustment to public spending will be necessary and social programs will not be ruled out. It is not a matter of whether the federal government convinces or not with its plans to strengthen Pemex, but whether it will be able to continue operating and will be able to fulfill its long-term commitments.
The key is to know the Pemex Business Plan because it will clear many doubts about the sustainability of the company and the big question is whether it can contribute more to the treasury.
"If Pemex is doing well in Mexico it is going wonderfully but if the country does poorly it will have to face its debt, we have to see how it is going to be sustained so that Mexicans do not cost us a catastrophic closure of the company", he said.