The Proméxico report focuses on the manufacturing industry and analyzes a scenario by 2030. The largest impact is expected in the automotive sector.
Nearly 3 million potential jobs could be lost in Mexico due to automation
Mexico could lose more than 2.7 million potential jobs in the manufacturing industry if there is a scenario of accelerated adoption of automation in the country, as part of the Fourth Industrial Revolution (I4.0), projected a study published by ProMéxico in December 2018.
The study analyzes the 10 main occupations of the eight sectors of interest of manufacturing in Mexico, in which currently 2 million 469,000 people work.
If Mexico were to face a scenario of accelerated adoption of automation, that amount would only rise to 3 million 345,000 jobs in 2030, a figure much lower than that of 6 million 113,000 jobs in the event of a late automation adoption scenario.
The difference between these last two figures entails more than 2.7 million potential jobs that would be lost from 2017 to 2030.
"The projections for 2030 indicate that the number of jobs in the stage of manufacturing production that would be lost in that year amounts to 2.7 million, with employees in the automotive sector those that would report the greatest fall, with about 50% of the total, "said the analysis, released by the Business Intelligence Unit of ProMéxico.
Despite this loss of jobs, the trend in the projections for 2030 in the growth of the number of jobs in the eight sectors is positive, which implies that there is no scenario of an abrupt loss of the level of employment in Mexico. .
One possible explanation for this phenomenon is that the occupational structures of the eight sectors to be considered are mostly traditional and with an important hiring trend in the 2013-2017 period.
"This would imply a fall in the position of the Mexican industry within the global value chains, which would result in a loss of competitiveness important to the country," the study added.
Graciela Márquez, Secretary of Economy, said that the federal government will support the different levels of industrial development and the advance of I4.0 will change, if not forever changed, the way in which people are accustomed to conceive the Production of goods and services.
"As a society, as a country, we can not remain outside of that revolution, but we have challenges, and an important challenge to solve is that we must combine, not only to enter fully into that industrial revolution, but at the same time resolve the lags that we have and, therefore, make a sort of combination of the First, Second, Third and Fourth Industrial Revolution. "
The sectors covered by the study are: automotive, agro-industrial, electrical, electronic, metal-mechanic, plastics, chemical and textile-confection.
Analyzed in two cuts of time, for the period 2017-2023, the Average Annual Growth Rate (TMCA) of people employed in the top 10 is 9.7%, higher than 9.0% observed in the period 2013- 2017 For 2023-2030, the rate is 8%.
In contrast, the accelerated adoption scenario, unlike the late one, shows a growth dynamic more reactive to I4.0, with a negative outlook towards the year 2030.
Although more jobs are expected than those observed in 2017, the 10 main occupations will tend to stabilize their growth due to the effects of labor reconfiguration.
For 2017-2023, the TMCA of persons employed in the top 10 is 5.0%, lower than 9.0% observed during 2013-2017; for 2023-2030, it is -0.8%.