How Kamala Harris is Transforming the 2024 U.S. Presidential Race

Although Joe Biden's decision not to continue in the race for the presidency of the United States (USA) is late, just over 100 days before the election, Kamala Harris' participation marks a turning point, a total change in the American electoral process that will make voters who did not plan to vote, do so, agreed researchers from the Center for Research on North America (CISAN) of the UNAM.

At the press conference "The definition of the Democratic candidacy: Towards the November elections in the United States," Paz Consuelo Márquez-Padilla García considered that, unlike in the past, when international politics did not play an important role in the American electoral process, today it does have relevance, and this includes the case of the relationship with Mexico.

The former director of CISAN also estimated that if Donald Trump wins, the situation would be difficult in terms of migration, with mass deportations and "terrible treatment" even for Mexican-Americans. But on other issues, such as the renegotiation of the USMCA, there could be a possibility that there would not be too many changes.

In contrast, if Kamala Harris wins, there could be more obstacles to an easy renegotiation of the trade agreement, due to issues such as unions and the environment, for example.

Regarding drug trafficking, the magnate speaks of a military intervention, the use of weapons, and the destruction of Mexican drug traffickers, which “would be very strong for the sovereignty” of our country; on the other hand, Harris would take the position that it is a shared problem, where the topics of weapons and drug trafficking go together.

Estefanía Cruz Lera predicted that the relationship between the United States and our nation will be tense with Democrats or Republicans, but we have an advantage: a future Secretary of Foreign Affairs, Juan Ramón de la Fuente, who knows the neighboring country to the north well, and both candidates to occupy the White House, and with either one he will have the capacity to negotiate.

The university student stressed that Democrats are inclined to divide the bilateral relationship into aspects such as security or trade, but the problem with Trump is that he mixes them all up, and uses migration as a “bargaining chip” to talk about trade, or trade to deal with border and security issues.

“It is difficult to have a solid foreign policy with the United States when they tend to combine issues of diverse nature and complexity, but Mexico is prepared in a certain sense and knows the virtual candidates for the presidency of the American Union. However, a scenario of tension is looming in the short term,” she reiterated.

Márquez-Padilla García believed that Kamala Harris brings new hope; she has given passion to people. For example, young people who did not want to know anything about Joe Biden are happy today; 30 thousand people have expressed their desire to work as volunteers to support her. The race will not be easy. A little more than 100 days before the election, the preferences are 50-50, very even.

Kamala Harris has transformed herself in recent years, and from being a little-known incoming vice president, she has positioned herself as a politician who has a clear message and has managed to awaken hope, said the academic.

When listing Harris' weaknesses, Cruz Lera suggested that she must "detach herself" from Biden and find her own voice, that she must build on what has been achieved and reconsider some aspects.

At this moment, she stressed, it is essential who she will choose as her running mate and future vice president if she wins the election. "Being a woman and a minority, it will most likely be a white man; and since she comes from a progressive state, it could be someone from a more moderate state."

Several names are mentioned that, if they join immediately, will contribute to the Democratic campaign and there would be a possibility of winning the election, including the governors of Pennsylvania and Illinois, Josh Shapiro and Jay Robert Pritzker, respectively.

The academic said that Harris' candidacy will get many Americans who were not planning to vote to do so, a significant fact in these elections where low voter participation was expected.

In addition, she has motivated a sorority movement among women, and there are minority organizations that supported her. We will also see personalities such as Oprah Winfrey or Taylor Swift joining the Democratic campaign, which has little time left. Meanwhile, Kamala Harris will have to work more on her speeches, the academic explained.

Regarding Trump, Márquez-Padilla asserted that his message of hate worked for him in 2016, but now it could bring him certain problems. Although the American population is polarized and tired of uncertainty and insecurity.

If Kamala Harris reaches the White House, we cannot think that the immigration problem will be solved; the Democrats expect it to be orderly, not caravans of people crossing the border. She will have a strong position, but without losing sight of the human rights of migrants, and without separating families as Trump did, the academic said.

Juan Carlos Barrón Pastor, also a member of CISAN, when presenting the conference, said that Biden's participation in the debate against Trump, the attempted assassination of the former president, and the decision of the current president not to participate in the electoral process and support Vice President Harris, make up a chain of unprecedented events.

We are seeing the efforts of the Democratic Party to unify itself, and to reach its convention, next August, with an agreement. And the positions on hot topics of international politics such as the wars in Ukraine and Palestine, fundamental for world opinion, remain to be seen.