Pemex requires structural "jolt" and reactivate alliances with investors
It is a good sign the new injection of capital to Petroleos Mexicanos (Pemex) for five billion dollars, announced this Wednesday, but the company needs a structural "shake-up" and reactivate alliances with private investors.
This was the view of the director of the Anahuac Business Development Institute (IDEA), Laura Iturbide Galindo, pointing out that the problem of Pemex is not only financial, and although it is the largest, it is not the only one.
"Pemex needs a major structural shock, it needs new governance, it needs efficient operations and of course it needs to reactivate all these alliances where good money is put in the good, not the bad."
In an interview during the quarterly meeting of IDEA, under the title "Mexico before the external and internal dilemma," she said that Pemex should be dedicated to the exploration of deposits in shallow waters and leave this activity in deep waters to private investors, national or international.
The Mexican government has a very reduced fiscal maneuvering margin, as they are committed a large part of their budgetary resources, especially because of the problem that means the high debt of Petroleos Mexicanos.
For this reason, Iturbide Galindo celebrated that the government has turned to see other important actors in society, such as the national and foreign private sector, albeit under new rules of action.
The specialist also said that it is not possible to achieve the increase to the production platform of Pemex included in the 2020 economic package proposal, to 1.9 million barrels per day, from an average of 1.7 million, if not with private investment.
"Call it what you call it, farmouts, public-private partnerships or licenses, whatever you call the association scheme, but we do need to reactivate oil fields".
Thus, the director of IDEA, an institute of the Universidad Anahuac, celebrated the progress towards an opening of dialogue with different sectors of the economy, because it is a recognition that the public sector can not and should not do everything.
As for the behavior of the Mexican economy, she noted that it is stagnant in a context of the global slowdown, which should lead to be more rigorous and very realistic with economic policies and to be careful in fiscal matters.
The signal given by the 2020 economic package with the proposed primary surplus of 0.7% of GDP, instead of the 1.0% preliminarily calculated by the Ministry of Finance, is good news that will give a margin of looseness.
In general, described as prudent the proposed economic package for 2020, but also has some very optimistic parts, as it bets a lot on revenue collection and the expectation of growth of between 1.5 and 2.5%, "I am exaggerated.
This means that it will be unavoidable to make cuts to spending over the next year if you want to meet the goal of a primary surplus of 0.7% of GDP, while the production platform of Pemex is optimistic, but could be met with the revival of public-private partnerships.
For this year, IDEA estimates that the Mexican economy will close with a growth of 0.3%, and while registering a recovery in 2020, would advance 1.3%, below the range projected by the Mexican government.