Mexico's economic activity slows its decline in March

19/04/2021

Mexico's economic activity slowed its decline during March 2021, due to the relaxation of the containment measures, especially in the services sector, according to the results of the new Timely Indicator of Economic Activity (IOAE, for its acronym in Spanish).

According to the IOAE, published this Monday, an annual variation of the Global Indicator of Economic Activity (IGAE) is estimated with a decrease of 2.14 percent in the third month of the year with respect to the same period of the previous year.

The result comes after a 4.15 percent decrease in January of this year, in February the drop was 3.90 percent. In addition, Mexico's economic activity has experienced 21 consecutive months of declines in its annual comparison.

By major sectors, the National Institute of Statistics and Geography (Inegi) stated that for secondary activities, an annual drop of 0.9 percent is estimated for March, while for the tertiary sector, the estimated annual variation would be 3.1 percent.

"IOAE, the Timely Indicator of Economic Activity, anticipates an annual decline in the IGAE of (-)2.1 percent in March 2021, with a range of [-3.6%, -0.6%]; said decline is lower than that anticipated for February (-3.9 percent YoY)," posted Julio Santaella, president of Inegi on his Twitter account.

In his statement, he informed that the IOAE does not replace the IGAE data, but complements the official information. The results of this new indicator will be presented one week before the IGAE figures for the month in question are released.

They added that the IOAE is generated from a nowcasting statistical model, or current moment estimation, which improves the timeliness with which information on key macroeconomic variables for reference periods in the immediate past is released.

In addition, the IGAE and its components are released approximately eight weeks after the end of the reference month, while the IOAE will present its estimates only three weeks after the end of the month, five weeks before the release of the official data.