Barclays reduced its growth forecast for the Mexican economy to only 0.5% from 1.2% for the year 2019, as the economy is rapidly losing strength this year, a weakness that could last longer. The financial institution of English origin also cut its growth forecast for Mexico in 2020 at a rate of 1.5%, from its previous estimate of 2.0%. In the weekly report, the bank pointed out that the performance of the economy has been affected not only by slower global growth but also by local factors.
Also, some indicators of business confidence show that the private sector could remain cautious due to greater uncertainty in the area of public regulation and economic policies, particularly in the level of support for infrastructure projects and energy policy. Job creation slows down more quickly in a context in which investment continues to show persistent signs of weakness, Barclays said.
The reduction of public expenditures, in particular of public investment, and the additional regulations and controls on construction and contracting could have an impact on growth in the following months. In this context, growth should remain almost absent, so Barclays expects a rise of 0.5% in 2019, from 1.2% previously, and 1.5% in 2020, from 2.0% previously. The financial institution said that a risk to its forecast is that the situation of Pemex is resolved in a sustainable manner and confidence could return.