Anticipate economic growth of 2% for Mexico in 2019
Mexico's economy will grow around 2 percent in 2019, according to projections from investment banks, financial analysts and multilateral organizations.
The growth estimates for the country range from 1.9 to 2.1 percent in Mexico by 2019, while the estimates for the economic expansion in 2018 are between 2.0 and 2.2 percent. Inflation, meanwhile, would be in 2019 between 3.8 and 3.9 percent.
International analysis highlighted that the country's financial fundamentals will remain solid during the current government of Andrés Manuel López Obrador (AMLO), although they indicated that there is a certain degree of uncertainty, but it will be short-term.
"Despite all the noise about AMLO, investors think that this is just a short-term noise, that AMLO will react to the discipline of the market and that the fiscal position is still quite solid," said an analysis by Merrill investment bank. Lynch.
The analysis specified that real interest rates are high enough in Mexico to offset the potential risk to investors derived from decisions made by the current administration.
For its part, the FocusEconomics analysis center, which makes its projections through surveys to dozens of experts, said that its estimated growth for the national economy in 2019 is 2.1 percent.
"However, in more general terms, it is expected that restricted labor markets (or with low unemployment rates), both nationally and in the state, support growth in the coming years," the analysts pointed out.
They also pointed out that on the external front, the new Treaty between Mexico, the United States and Canada (T-MEC) should support long-term exports. Analysts see growth of 2.2 percent in 2020.
Meanwhile, the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC) indicated in its most recent report on its economic projections for the region in 2019 that the Mexican economy will expand 2.1 percent.
A possible delay in the ratification and implementation of the T-MEC could also put downward pressure on the growth estimates for the Mexican economy in 2019, stressed ECLAC.